Hollywood expects to have a happy holiday season at the box office

Movie theaters posted their worst attendance since 1994 last year, but Hollywood is poised for a big comeback — with the help of a secret agent, a sullen vampire and a hairy-footed hobbit.

Domestic ticket sales are already up by 3% compared with the same period last year, and a bumper crop of strong films this holiday season — including movies that will appeal to both popular and discerning tastes — could push annual box office receipts above $11 billion for the first time.

A strong finish to the year could ease the uncertainty gripping an industry under pressure to cut costs and boost profits, especially as revenue dwindles from once-reliable DVD sales and as more fans turn to video-on-demand and streaming to catch the latest movies.

"We're still facing the same structural issues — the DVD business is declining and there are distractions for the audience — so studios have to rationalize their costs," said Stacey Snider, chief executive of DreamWorks, which is releasing "Lincoln" this weekend. But she points out: "All that doom and gloom people were talking about after the summer ticket sales didn't come to bear."

Snider was referring to the anxiety rampant in Hollywood earlier this year, amid the box office flop of big-budget films including "John Carter" and "Battleship." But those disappointments have been tempered by a handful of certified hits, including "The Avengers," "The Dark Knight Rises," "The Amazing Spider-Man" and "The Hunger Games."

And some movies have performed better than expected. One of those is the Iranian hostage drama "Argo," which has taken in nearly $80 million since opening Oct. 12.

"I'm becoming increasingly concerned about the movie business ... there's the feeling that it could all sort of fall apart or at least be greatly diminished," said Ben Affleck, who directed and stars in "Argo." "But there is a huge crop of really interesting movies coming out in the next couple of months, and I think that's great for the movie business."

The latest James Bond film, the well-reviewed "Skyfall," kicks off the holiday movie season this weekend and is expected to haul in about $100 million, which would be the fourth-highest opening of the year.

Next week, multiplexes across the country will be swarming with young women eager to see Kristen Stewart and Robert Pattinson in "The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2," the fifth and final installment of the vampire franchise. About 1,500 fans are already camped out in downtown Los Angeles for Monday night's premiere.

In December comes "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey," a prequel to Peter Jackson's "Lord of the Rings" trilogy, which grossed more than $2.9 billion worldwide.

"There's a good feeling about the business right now," said Amy Pascal, co-chair of Sony Pictures. "It really looks like we have a lot of fantastic movies coming at the end of the year."

In addition to the slew of big-budget films hitting theaters, an above-average array of less costly movies aimed at sophisticated filmgoers could provide a crucial assist for a box-office record: Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln" (opening in limited release this weekend), the dramedy "Silver Linings Playbook" with Bradley Cooper, a star-studded version of Broadway's hit musical "Les Misérables" and "Zero Dark Thirty," about the mission to kill Osama bin Laden.

"Unlike last year, which had a very slow December, the final six weeks of this year are going to make up for that ... because of the mix of summer-style blockbusters and Oscar-bait films," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of Hollywood.com.

Still, there could be some costly misses. Director Ang Lee's 3-D spectacle "Life of Pi" has earned favorable reviews in early screenings, but with a production cost of $120 million and an unknown 19-year-old lead, the holiday release is considered a big gamble for 20th Century Fox and its financial partners.

"We all have a lot riding on these films, and you want people to be buying tickets," said Elizabeth Gabler, whose Fox 2000 Pictures produced "Life of Pi." "But I think ... the more exciting movies you can offer people will get them to the theater. When there's a lot of energy there, that fosters excitement about the moviegoing experience."

Only two films released during the fourth quarter in 2011 had U.S. ticket sales top $200 million, and the season also brought some unexpectedly expensive misses in Martin Scorsese's "Hugo" and the animated comedy "Arthur Christmas."

"Admissions going up is always good news. Would you like them to go up more? Of course," said Warner Bros. Motion Picture Group President Jeff Robinov. "But the business is in flux — there's a diversity of choices for consumers, home video is shrinking and there's a debate over release windows."

Ticket sales have been trending down since hitting the 1.57 billion mark in 2002, falling to 1.28 billion last year, the lowest in 16 years.

Box office revenue, by comparison, has shown modest gains — largely because of higher ticket prices and new premiums for Imax and 3-D showings.

To end the year strong, Hollywood has to score a robust holiday season, which accounts for about 20% of annual box-office receipts.

"We look forward to these last six weeks of the year to really ramp up business," said Gary Dupuis, the general manager of Montana-based Polson Theatres. "It's one of the better holiday seasons coming up. I think that's positive, because we are certainly still in the economy crunch where people know it's not cheap to go to the movies."

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War photography exhibit debuts in Houston museum

HOUSTON (AP) — It was a moment Nina Berman did not expect to capture when she entered an Illinois wedding studio in 2006. She knew Tyler Ziegel had been horribly injured, his face mutilated beyond recognition by a suicide bombing in the Iraq War. She knew he was marrying his pretty high school sweetheart, perfect in a white, voluminous dress.

It was their expressions that were surprising.

"People don't think this war has any impact on Americans? Well here it is," Berman says of the image of a somber bride staring blankly, unsmiling at the camera, her war-ravaged groom alongside her, his head down.

"This was even more shocking because we're used to this kind of over-the-top joy that feels a little put on, and then you see this picture where they look like survivors of something really serious," Berman added.

The photograph that won a first place prize in the World Press Photos Award contest will stand out from other battlefield images in an exhibit "WAR/PHOTOGRAPHY: Images of Armed Conflict and Its Aftermath" that debuts Sunday — Veterans Day — in the Houston Museum of Fine Arts. From there, the exhibit will travel to The Annenberg Space for Photography in Los Angeles, the Corcoran Gallery of Art in Washington and The Brooklyn Museum in Brooklyn, N.Y.

The exhibit was painstakingly built by co-curators Anne Wilkes Tucker and Will Michels after the museum purchased a print of the famous picture of the raising of the flag at Iwo Jima, taken Feb. 23, 1945, by Associated Press photographer Joe Rosenthal. The curators decided the museum didn't have enough conflict photos, Tucker said, and in 2004, the pair began traveling around the country and the world in search of pictures.

Over nearly eight years and after viewing more than 1 million pictures, Tucker and Michels created an exhibit that includes 480 objects, including photo albums, original magazines and old cameras, by 280 photographers from 26 countries.

Some are well-known — such as the Rosenthal's picture and another AP photograph, of a naked girl running from a napalm attack during the Vietnam War taken in 1972 by Huynh Cong "Nick" Ut. Others, such as the Incinerated Iraqi, of a man's burned body seen through the shattered windshield of his car, will be new to most viewers.

"The point of all the photographs is that when a conflict occurs, it lingers," Tucker said.

The pictures hang on stark gray walls, and some are in small rooms with warning signs at the entrance designed to allow visitors to decide whether they want to view images that can be brutal in their honesty.

"It's something that we did to that man. Americans did it, we did it intentionally and it's a haunting picture," Michels said of the image of the burned Iraqi that hangs inside one of the rooms.

In some images, such as Don McCullin's picture of a U.S. Marine throwing a grenade at a North Vietnamese soldier in Hue, it is clear the photographer was in danger when immortalizing the moment. Looking at his image, McCullin recalled deciding to travel to Hue instead of Khe Sahn, as he had initially planned.

"It was the best decision I ever made," he said, smiling slightly as he looked at the picture, explaining that he took a risk by standing behind the Marine.

"This hand took a bullet, shattered it. It looked like a cauliflower," he said, pointing to the still-upraised hand that threw the grenade. "So the people he was trying to kill were trying to kill him."

McCullin, who worked at that time for The Sunday Times in London, has covered conflicts all over the world, from Lebanon and Israel to Biafra. Now 77, McCullin says he wonders, still, whether the hundreds of photos he's taken have been worthwhile. At times, he said, he lost faith in what he was doing because when one war ends, another begins.

Yet he believes journalists and photographers must never stop telling about the "waste of man in war."

"After seeing so much of it, I'm tired of thinking, 'Why aren't the people who rule our lives ... getting it?' " McCullin said, adding that he'd like to drag them all into the exhibit for an hour.

Berman didn't see the conflicts unfold. Instead, she waited for the wounded to come home, seeking to tell a story about war's aftermath.

Her project on the wounded developed in 2003. The Iraq War was at its height, and there was still no database, she said, to find names of wounded warriors returning home. So she scoured local newspapers on the Internet.

In 2004 she published a book called "Purple Hearts" that includes photographs taken over nine months of 20 different people. All were photographed at home, not in hospitals where, she said, "there's this expectation that this will all work out fine."

The curators, meanwhile, chose to tell the story objectively — refusing through the images they chose or the exhibit they prepared to take a pro- or anti-war stance, a decision that has invited criticism and sparked debate.

And maybe, that is the point.

___

Plushnick-Masti can be followed on Twitter at https://twitter.com/RamitMastiAP

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The New Old Age Blog: The Emotional Aftermath of Hurricane Sandy

Let’s talk about the emotional aftermath of the storm that left tens of thousands of older people on the East Coast without power, bunkered down in their homes, chilled to the bone and out of touch with the outside world.

Let’s name the feelings they may have experienced. Fear. Despair. Hopelessness. Anxiety. Panic.

Linda Leest and her staff at Services Now for Adult Persons in Queens heard this in the voices of the older people they had been calling every day, people who were homebound and at risk because of medical conditions that compromise their physical functioning.

“They’re afraid of being alone,” she said in a telephone interview a few days after the storm. “They’re worried that if anything happens to them, no one is going to know. They feel that they’ve lost their connection with the world.”

What do we know about how older adults fare, emotionally, in a disaster like that devastating storm, which destroyed homes and businesses and isolated older adults in darkened apartment buildings, walk-ups and houses?

Most do well — emotional resilience is an underappreciated characteristic of older age — but those who are dependent on others, with pre-existing physical and mental disabilities, are especially vulnerable.

Most will recover from the disorienting sense that their world has been turned upside down within a few weeks or months. But some will be thrown into a tailspin and will require professional help. The sooner that help is received, the more likely it is to prevent a significant deterioration in their health.

The best overview comes from a November 2008 position paper from the American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry that reviewed the effects of Hurricane Katrina and other disasters. After Katrina, “the elderly had the highest mortality rates, health decline and suicide rates of any subgroup,” that document notes. “High rates of psychosomatic problems were seen, with worsening health problems and increased mortality and disability.”

This is an important point: Emotional trauma in older adults often is hard to detect, and looks different from what occurs in younger people. Instead of acknowledging anxiety or depression, for instance, older people may complain of having a headache, a bad stomachache or some other physical ailment.

“This age group doesn’t generally feel comfortable talking about their feelings; likely, they’ll mask those emotions or minimize what they’re experiencing,” said Dr. Mark Nathanson, a geriatric psychiatrist at Columbia University Medical Center.

Signs that caregivers should watch out for include greater-than-usual confusion in an older relative, a decline in overall functioning and a disregard for “self care such as bathing, eating, dressing properly and taking medication,” Dr. Nathanson said.

As an example, he mentioned an older man who had “been sitting in a cold house for days and decided to stop taking his water pill because he felt it was just too much trouble.” Being distraught or distracted and forgetting or neglecting to take pills for chronic conditions like diabetes or heart disease can have immediate harmful effects.

Especially at risk of emotional disturbances are older adults who are frail and advanced in age, those who have cognitive impairments like Alzheimer’s disease, those with serious mental illnesses like schizophrenia or major depression, and those with chronic medical conditions or otherwise in poor physical health, according to the geriatric psychiatry association’s position paper.

A common thread in all of the above is the depletion of physical and emotional reserves, which impairs an older person’s ability to adapt to adverse circumstances.

“In geriatrics, we have this idea of the ‘geriatric cascade’ that refers to how a seemingly minor thing can set in motion a functional, cognitive and psychological downward spiral” in vulnerable older adults, said Dr. Mark Lachs, chief of the division of geriatrics at Weill Cornell Medical College. “Well, the storm was a major thing — a very large disequilibrating event — and its impact is an enormous concern.”

Of special concern are older people who may be in the early stages of Alzheimer’s disease or other types of dementia who are living alone. For this group, the maintenance of ordinary routines and the sense of a dependable structure in their lives is particularly important, and “a situation like Sandy, which causes so much disruption, can be a tipping point,” Dr. Lachs said.

Also of concern are older people who may have experienced trauma in the past, and who may suffer a reignition of post-traumatic stress symptoms because of the disaster.

Most painful of all, for many older adults, is the sense of profound isolation that can descend on those without working phones, electricity or relatives who can come by to help.

“That isolation, I can’t tell you how disorienting that can be,” said Bobbie Sackman, director of public policy for the Council of Senior Centers and Services of New York City. “They’re scared, but they won’t tell you because they’re too proud and ashamed to ask for help.”

The best remedy, in the short run, is the human touch.

“Now is the time for people to reach out to their neighbors in high-rises or in areas where seniors are clustered, to knock on doors and ask people how they are doing,” said Dr. Gary Kennedy, director of the division of geriatric psychiatry at Montefiore Medical Center in the Bronx.

Don’t make it a one-time thing; let the older person know you’ll call or come by again, and set up a specific time so “there’s something for them to look forward to,” Dr. Kennedy said. So-called naturally occurring retirement communities with large concentrations of older people should be organizing from within to contact residents who may not be connected with social services and find out how they’re doing, he recommended.

In conversations with older adults, offer reassurance and ask open-ended questions like “Are you low on pills?” or “Can I run out and get you something?” rather than trying to get them to open up, experts recommended. Focusing on problem-solving can make people feel that their lives are being put back in order and provide comfort.

Although short-term psychotherapy has positive outcomes for older adults who’ve undergone a disaster, it’s often hard to convince a senior to seek out mental health services because of the perceived stigma associated with psychological conditions. Don’t let that deter you: Keep trying to connect them with services that can be of help.

Be mindful of worrisome signs like unusual listlessness, apathy, unresponsiveness, agitation or confusion. These may signal that an older adult has developed delirium, which can be extremely dangerous if not addressed quickly, Dr. Nathanson said. If you suspect that’s the case, call 911 or make sure you take the person to the nearest hospital emergency room.

This is a safe place to talk about all kinds of issues affecting older adults. Would you be willing to share what kinds of mental health issues you or family members are dealing with since the storm so readers can learn from one another?

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Power struggle at Warner Bros.

Two years ago Time Warner Inc. Chief Executive Jeff Bewkes created an Office of the President to inspire three ambitious executives into collegial competition for the top job at Warner Bros., Hollywood's largest film and television studio.

"These three will work as a unit," Bewkes declared.

But the effort has inspired distrust and disharmony inside Warner Bros., the studio known for Batman, Bugs Bunny and "The Big Bang Theory" as well as for its decades of management stability.

The three competing candidates — Television Group President Bruce Rosenblum, Motion Pictures Group President Jeff Robinov and Home Entertainment Group President Kevin Tsujihara — do not work as a unit. They rarely meet as a trio or get involved in one another's businesses, according to several people associated with the studio who were not authorized to speak publicly.

And although Bewkes said anyone jockeying or politicking for the job of Warner Bros.' chairman would "eliminate themselves" as contenders, the three men have been maneuvering for position while their subordinates quietly advertise their bosses' qualities and rivals' shortcomings.

Morale is low and anxiety is high on Warner's Burbank lot. Some insiders describe an atmosphere in which executives are hesitant to extend contracts, staffers are afraid to cross department lines for fear of "taking sides" and potential partners are wary of signing long-term deals without knowing who will be in charge.

Some have also expressed frustration that the succession process has dragged on so long and that Bewkes has remained publicly silent on the matter.

"People are very preoccupied with the issue of succession, and it creates an undercurrent of tension and awkwardness," said a Warner Bros. executive, one of more than a dozen interviewed by The Times who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. "It's like being a kid wondering if your parents are about to break up."

The runoff officially launched in September 2010 when Warner's professorial chairman, Barry Meyer, agreed to postpone his planned retirement until the end of 2013 — after 42 years at the company and 14 in the top job.

Bewkes, who like the three candidates declined through a spokesperson to be interviewed, envisioned the Office of the President as a way to groom Robinov, Rosenblum and Tsujihara by helping them "see and think beyond their own businesses," according to a person familiar with his thinking.

Bewkes is expected to announce early next year whether he has selected one of the three men to be the new chairman or if, after the long and public bake-off, he is electing to bring in an outsider.

The historic Burbank entertainment company, founded in 1923 by brothers Jack, Harry, Sam and Albert Warner, has traditionally been Hollywood's most stable studio. Jack Warner sold it in 1967, and two years later new owner Steve Ross installed talent agent Ted Ashley, who remained in charge until 1980. Former CBS President Bob Daly and film executive Terry

Semel then sat atop Warner Bros. from 1981 to 1999, when Meyer was named chairman.

"This is a company that is 90 years old and basically has had just four management teams," Daly said. "It's the culture of the studio — its history and continuity — that makes Warner Bros. so special. There's such a family feeling there."

But the family feeling has become strained. Robinov and Rosenblum are said to be the most personally competitive, while turf wars over topics such as whose division controls Web shows have popped up between Rosenblum and Tsujihara. Robinov and Tsujihara have maintained the tightest relationship.

Rosenblum is viewed by many at the studio as the front-runner for the top job. Meyer was a longtime TV business affairs executive before ascending to the corporate suite, and television has become increasingly important to Warner's bottom line.

The affable and ambitious Rosenblum — who has worked at the studio for nearly 24 years, including seven as the top TV executive — has been accused of promoting his candidacy. Last year he was elected chairman of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, which bestows the annual Emmy Awards, a move seen by detractors as a way to boost his leadership credentials.

At a 2011 farewell party for Meyer's longtime deputy, Alan Horn, a string of speakers shared fond memories of the outgoing executive. Rosenblum's remarks surprised some attendees, however, when he jokingly reminded them that most Warner leaders had come up from the TV ranks.

The reserved and rough-edged Robinov — who joined the studio 15 years ago and replaced Horn as Warner's top movie executive last year — has a lower public profile. Perhaps to combat this, he has enlisted an outside publicist to help burnish his and his group's image.

Tsujihara appears to be the least competitive and the likeliest to partner up should Bewkes solve the leadership issue by appointing two executives to run the studio. However, the buttoned-down Stanford MBA, who is known as a digital guru and acquisitions expert, lacks operational experience in the studio's marquee film and TV production businesses.

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Social media shakes up solitary online FX trading

LONDON (Reuters) – The solitary world of online foreign exchange trading is emerging from the shadows as solo investors turn to specialist social media networks to link up with their peers and seek market-beating strategies.

Individual or retail trading, estimated at 8-10 percent of the $ 2.5 trillion daily spot FX market, used to conjure an image of a lone trader with little contact with the outside world.

But that is changing. Thanks to specially tailored websites known as social trading networks, users are able to see and even copy the trades of top-ranked rivals, swap ideas and gauge the market mood in online chat with a community of contacts.

“In the world of trading there are a lot of signals but social media gives us the market sentiment and it is ideal for chatting to people across the world for trade ideas,” said Patrick Orini, who has been trading FX online since 2004.

Retail forex traders make their deals using personal accounts through brokers such as Alpari, FxPro and IronFX. Increasingly, traders are hooking up their broker accounts with social trading networks, such as eToro, Currensee and Tradeo.

Traders usually pay a subscription to use the service while the social network and the broker might share revenue on trades.

In a system reminiscent of microblog network Twitter, top players who make their trades visible can gather thousands of followers, some of whom pay to copy their strategies.

Orini’s trading account on a social trading network called Tradeo has 500 followers, of whom around 20 copy his trades.

If online investors do well in their trades, they will attract more followers and will be ranked higher on the trader “leaderboard” posted on the site.

Retail FX has grown over the last decade as brokers allow individual traders to take highly leveraged positions previously accessible only to institutional investors. The largest group of market players is based in Japan.

eToro, one the world’s largest social trading platforms has processed more than 20 million trades since it went live at the beginning of 2012.

Tradeo, a social network for forex traders based in Tel Aviv, launched three months ago and, according to its co-founder and CEO Jonathan Adest, the site has posted up to half a billion dollars of trades from around 10,000 traders since then.

“It’s not a broker, but a network for brokers — a bit like an online trading room,” Adest said.

He said Tradeo also combats a key hazard of online trading — inaccurate or bogus information. Traders often swap ideas on comment boards, but anonymity and low security makes it difficult to weed out spam.

“The idea of creating a niche social network for forex traders is to help verify commentators usually found in chat rooms and comment boards,” Adest said.

In its increased use of social media, online forex trading is catching up with developments in the equities market.

Retail equities trading is estimated to account for up to half of trade in UK small companies. Retail FX’s smaller share of the overall market reflects the fact that most trade is over-the-counter and lack of volatility that make it harder to turn a profit.

TWITTER

In the equities market, analysis of Twitter postings and news headlines has been used to predict stock price movements.

London-based hedge fund firm Derwent Capital is launching a new spread betting application for retail traders in January that will use Twitter’s 350 million daily tweets to create a sentiment indicator covering currency pairs and other assets.

Social media makes existing currency market sentiment models more effective, said John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank.

“It would be a new way to measure “sentiment” in real time, something that banks can do already via how people are actually trading…but the Twitter measures might be able to bring new nuances and sophistication,” he said.

Arguably, solo traders who hook up to social trading networks are seeking an edge in the “wisdom of crowds”.

“The reason why so many people, like myself, do share their activity and ideas is to help each other and build the community,” Orini said. “I got so many valuable ideas from other traders, that I’m more than happy to share my ideas as well.”

(Editing by Nigel Stephenson)

Internet News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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Suspect arrested in rape of mentally disabled woman on bus

By Robert Faturechi, Sam Allen and Richard Winton

November 9, 2012, 10:45 a.m.

An arrest has been made in connection with the rape of a mentally disabled woman on a bus in Culver City, authorities said today.

A Los Angeles County sheriff’s official said a search warrant was served on the suspect’s home in South Los Angeles and that the man was arrested. Sgt. Dan Scott would not release the suspect’s name or give details on how the man was found. An image of the man on the bus has been circulated widely in the media, and authorities have extensive video of the attack.

The attack took place on the near-empty 217 bus in Culver City just after 5 p.m. on Wednesday.

Authorities said both the victim and suspect boarded the bus in Culver City at La Cienega and Jefferson boulevards.

She found a seat at the back of the bus, and the man followed her. Authorities say that without warning the man positioned himself between her legs and began sexually assaulting her over a 10-minute period.

"During the rape, an unknown witness, the only passenger on the bus, attempted to get the driver's attention," the Sheriff's Department said in a statement. 

The suspect then exited the bus at Sepulveda Boulevard and Slauson Avenue.

The victim reported the attack to the driver after the suspect was gone, authorities said.

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He called it, and now Silver's a pop-culture star

NEW YORK (AP) — The other night, Nate Silver got a little taste of what things are going to be like for him, post-Election 2012.

The 34-year-old statistician, unabashed numbers geek, author and creator of the much-read FiveThirtyEight blog at The New York Times had gone out for a drink with friends on Manhattan's Lower East Side. But he couldn't stay incognito; Immediately, he says, people sitting at the bar recognized him.

He was surprised, but probably shouldn't have been. After all, for 24 hours, ever since his election forecasts had proved uncannily successful — he correctly predicted the presidential winner in all 50 states, and almost all the Senate races — he'd been hailed as the election's "other winner," who'd silenced doubters and proven the value of a cool-headed, math-based approach.

That very night, he'd appeared on Jon Stewart's "The Daily Show" for the second time in three weeks. "Don't you want to stand up and say, 'I am Nate Silver, bow down to me!!'" Stewart roared, as the bespectacled Silver sat and chuckled. His name was trending on Twitter and he was the subject of a satirical Twitter hashtag, "Drunk Nate Silver." The Hollywood Reporter said he'd "made statistics sexy again." Many called his story a real-life "Revenge of the Nerds" tale.

And oh, his new book had soared to No. 2 on Amazon, after he linked to it on Twitter an hour after the first network call for President Barack Obama. ("This is probably a good time to link to my book," he'd tweeted at 12:13 a.m. — the closest he came to gloating.)

Even so, Silver says he wasn't quite prepared for that incident in the bar.

"It's odd," he said Thursday in a telephone interview from his Brooklyn home. "Is this going to happen every day, as opposed to once a month? I still have to get accustomed to this."

Silver, who uses computer models that he runs on a beat-up laptop at home, is quick to acknowledge the accomplishments of others using similar methods. "It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis," he said. And he noted that similar work was being done with, for example, weather, all the time. "You have to give those forecasters way more credit," he said. "Their forecasts have real life-and-death consequences"

In politics, too, others have used similar computer models to predict races. What Silver has done, though, is not only arrive at a formula that uses aggregated polls and other weighted factors to achieve his predictions, but to write about them in an accessible and engaging way.

His father, political science professor Brian Silver, attributes his son's success to a two-pronged drive: "He's driven by a need to get the answers to a problem, but he also is very concerned with the narrative, with telling the story," said the elder Silver, who teaches at Michigan State University.

The father recalls his son at 2 years old, already revealing himself as a prodigy with numbers — his mother asked him to count to three, and he went to 20. By four, he understood negative numbers, and could multiply in his head.

Needless to say he was a math whiz, but he also was a debating champion, winning competitions in high school. "On the debate team, it was OK to be a geek," Brian Silver explained. Nate then went off to the University of Chicago, where he earned a degree in economics.

A few years in consulting followed. It bored him, but it was during those years that Silver turned his love of baseball into a sophisticated forecasting system of player performance. That became his new career; he sold the system to Baseball Prospectus, and wrote a weekly column there on baseball research.

In 2007, Silver started writing about politics — at first under a pseudonym, "Poblano." He quickly gained an audience for his forecasts during the presidential primaries. In March of 2008, he began his FiveThirtyEight blog, and a few months later revealed his name.

"People had been thinking Poblano was a major pollster," said his father. "He was just a kid with a B.A. in economics."

With his success in the 2008 race — he got every state right except for Indiana — Silver was already a big name. In 2009 he was named one of Time's 100 Most Influential People. In 2010, he licensed his blog to The New York Times.

But the 2012 election brought a new level of pressure. While Democrats flocked to his blog and took daily solace in his consistent prediction that Obama would win — though not by a lot — commentators on the right were critical, and he was accused of weighting his forecasts too heavily toward Democrats.

MSNBC host Joe Scarborough, a former Republican congressman, called him a "joke." Silver responded by betting him that Obama would win, a bet that Scarborough didn't take him up on and that was later criticized by the Times ombudsman. (That bet was the poker player in him, Silver says now; he spent a couple years playing serious online poker.)

Much more disturbing, said Silver, were what he called the homophobic comments that some resorted to on the Web. "That was a little shocking," he said. Added his father: "It got very personal."

But Silver says he always felt confident in his projections. "I didn't see any particular reason for the polls to be off the mark," he said. "Republicans said Democrats were oversampled, but without much justification. I felt pretty confident personally." Silver predicted 90.9 percent certainty that Obama would win, and forecast him getting 313 electoral college votes; he has 303 without Florida, which is still counting and could take him to 332.

On Election Day itself, Silver felt nervous, but only because there was nothing left to do. Once the early results started coming in, he relaxed. And then, of course, came vindication. "You know who won the election tonight? Nate Silver," said Rachel Maddow on MSNBC. Even Bret Baier on Fox gave credit on air to Silver. On "The Daily Show," Stewart basically credited Silver with saving the reputation of arithmetic — and more. "Like, gravity would have been up for grabs," Stewart quipped, if Silver had been wrong.

There have been some gripes that Silver doesn't reveal his actual formula. "He has very carefully explained how he does things," his father answers. "But he's not giving away his code. He shouldn't be expected to do that."

Nate Silver does say, however, that in the future, "Maybe we'll have to be clearer." He also voices concern that precise forecasting could have the frightening effect of influencing voter behavior — something that obviously doesn't happen in areas like weather. "You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast," he said.

Silver also says he doesn't necessarily expect the same results forever. "I know we're going to have some misses sooner or later," he said, adding that an incorrect forecast on the Senate race in North Dakota is "proof that we can be wrong — and polls can be wrong." Others have pointed out that Silver's forecasting is, of course, only as good as the polls he is using, since he's not a pollster himself.

For now, though, he's trying to enjoy it all as much as he can.

"When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame," he observed wryly. "Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by The Onion — or be the subject of a cartoon in The New Yorker. I guess I'm kind of an outlier there."

What's ahead for Silver? Turns out, forecasting his own future feels much more difficult than forecasting an election.

"It can be a fulltime job, figuring out what your job is going to be," he quipped.

For now, he has a second book to write, part of a two-book deal. And FiveThirtyEight is set to remain at the Times until mid-2013. After that, he doesn't know yet, though he noted, with understatement: "I know I'll have more opportunities now." But he added: "I'm sure there will be a FiveThirtyEight forecast in 2016."

For now, he prefers to look at life, and life choices, as a poker player, since he loves the game.

"You get steely nerves playing poker," he said. "It's part skill and part luck. You hope you win enough bets to make a living on, right?"

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Sanofi Halves Price of Drug After Sloan-Kettering Balks at Paying It

In an unusual move, a big drug company said on Thursday that it would effectively cut in half the price of a new cancer drug after a leading cancer center said it would not use the drug because it was too expensive.

The move — announced by Sanofi for the colon cancer drug Zaltrap — could be a sign of resistance to the unfettered increase in the prices of cancer drugs, some of which cost more than $100,000 a year and increase survival by a few months at best.

Zaltrap came to market in August at a price of about $11,000 a month. Soon after, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York decided not to use the drug, saying it was twice as expensive but no more effective than a similar medicine, Avastin from Genentech. Both drugs improved median survival by 1.4 months, doctors there said.

Three doctors at Sloan-Kettering publicized the cancer center’s decision last month in an Op-Ed article in The New York Times.

“Ignoring the cost of care is no longer tenable,” they wrote. ”Soaring spending has presented the medical community with a new obligation. When choosing treatments for patients, we have to consider the financial strains they may cause alongside the benefits they may deliver.”

Sanofi executives argued that the price they had set was very similar to that of Avastin. “The intent was not to charge a premium,” Christopher A. Viehbacher, the chief executive of Sanofi, said in an interview last month.

Sloan-Kettering, he said, was basing its price comparison on a dose of Avastin that was half the dose Sanofi used in its own comparison.

On Thursday, Sanofi backed down. “We believe that Zaltrap is priced competitively as used in real-world situations,” it said in a statement. “However, we recognize that there was some market resistance to the perceived relative price of Zaltrap in the U.S. — especially in light of low awareness of Zaltrap in the U.S. market. As such, we are taking immediate action across the U.S. oncology community to reduce the net cost of Zaltrap.”

The move was first reported on Thursday by The Cancer Letter, a newsletter about cancer issues.

Sanofi said it would not change the official price for Zaltrap but would offer discounts of about 50 percent. Zaltrap, which is given intravenously, is not bought directly by patients but is sold to doctors or hospitals, which administer it. The cost is then reimbursed by Medicare or private insurers. Patients could be liable for a co-payment.

Dr. Leonard B. Saltz, chief of gastrointestinal oncology at Sloan-Kettering and one of the authors of the Op-Ed article, said Sanofi’s offer of discounts “doesn’t really address the problem from our perspective” because Medicare reimbursement and patient co-payments would still be based on the higher list price, at least for several more months.

Also, he said, the discounts could give doctors and hospitals an incentive to use Zaltrap because they could profit from the difference between the discounted price they pay for the drug and the higher price at which they are reimbursed by insurers.

Dr. Saltz said even at the lower price, he did not foresee Sloan-Kettering doctors using Zaltrap because it was no better than Avastin and might be more toxic.

Dr. Saltz is now a consultant to Genentech and has been one to Sanofi.

Zaltrap, developed by Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, a biotechnology company in Tarrytown, N.Y., was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in August for use as a second-line treatment for colorectal cancer, meaning after an initial regimen had stopped working. Like Avastin, Zaltrap impedes the formation of blood vessels that nourish cancer cells.

Dr. Peter B. Bach, director of the Center for Health Policy and Outcomes at Sloan-Kettering and one of the authors of the Op-Ed piece, said the price of Zaltrap reflected a bigger problem — that over all there was little relation between drug prices and the value they provided.

“Normal markets wouldn’t behave like this,” he said on Thursday. “You couldn’t introduce something twice as expensive and no better and still sell it.”

Dr. Lee Newcomer, senior vice president for oncology at UnitedHealthcare, said it was the first time he could recall a company cutting the price of a cancer drug so much. “It was the first time physicians have stood up and said, “Enough is enough,’ ” he said. “And I think that was a watershed moment.”

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Rally fades as fears of Washington gridlock return

An early rally faded on Wall Street after President Barack Obama said he would stick to his pledge to seek higher taxes from the wealthy as part of his plan to reduce the U.S. government's budget deficit.

Investors worried that his position, which is opposed by many Republicans in Congress, could augur more political wrangling in Washington and the possibility that Congress won't act in time to avoid a series of drastic spending cuts and tax hikes that are set to kick in at the beginning of next year.

The Dow Jones industrial average had been up as much as 79 points before 1 p.m., when Obama began speaking. Much of the gain came after House Speaker John Boehner made his own remarks on the “fiscal cliff” issue late in the morning.

An hour after Obama's remarks, the Dow's gain was gone. As of 2 p.m. the Dow was down three points at 12,807. Broader market indicators were slightly higher. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was up four points at 1,381 and the Nasdaq composite was up 14 points at 2,910.

The market is coming off its worst two-day slide in a year. The Dow average plunged 434 since President Barack Obama won re-election as investors turned their focus to a deadline at the end of the year for Congress to act on reducing the budget deficit.

If it doesn't, the deep spending cuts and tax increases will occur automatically, potentially derailing the U.S. economy. The Congressional Budget Office said Thursday that the measures, if implemented, would likely push the economy back into recession.

The dimming outlook for Europe also weighed on markets this week. The European Commission, the executive arm of the European Union, slashed its forecast for economic growth in the region Wednesday.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.62 percent from 1.61 percent late Thursday.

Among stocks making big moves:

— Online deals company Groupon slumped $1.17 to $2.75 after the company disclosed late Thursday that it was hurt by the economic problems in Europe.

— J.C. Penney dropped $1.33 to $20.36 after the company reported a loss that was larger than investors were expecting. Shoppers have been abandoning the store after it got rid of blockbuster sales in favor of everyday low prices.

— Kayak Software surged $8.63 to $39.67 after the company said it had agreed to be bought by rival travel website Priceline.com.

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Exclusive: Google Ventures beefs up fund size to $300 million a year

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Google will increase the cash it allocates to its venture-capital arm to up to $300 million a year from $200 million, catapulting Google Ventures into the top echelon of corporate venture-capital funds.

Access to that sizeable checkbook means Google Ventures will be able to invest in more later-stage financing rounds, which tend to be in the tens of millions of dollars or more per investor.

It puts the firm on the same footing as more established corporate venture funds such as Intel's Intel Capital, which typically invests $300-$500 million a year.

"It puts a lot more wood behind the arrow if we need it," said Bill Maris, managing partner of Google Ventures.

Part of the rationale behind the increase is that Google Ventures is a relatively young firm, founded in 2009. Some of the companies it backed two or three years ago are now at later stages, potentially requiring larger cash infusions to grow further.

Google Ventures has taken an eclectic approach, investing in a broad spectrum of companies ranging from medicine to clean power to coupon companies.

Every year, it typically funds 40-50 "seed-stage" deals where it invests $250,000 or less in a company, and perhaps around 15 deals where it invests up to $10 million, Maris said. It aims to complete one or two deals annually in the $20-$50 million range, Maris said.

LACKING SUPERSTARS

Some of its investments include Nest, a smart-thermostat company; Foundation Medicine, which applies genomic analysis to cancer care; Relay Rides, a carsharing service; and smart-grid company Silver Spring Networks. Last year, its portfolio company HomeAway raised $216 million in an initial public offering.

Still, Google Ventures lacks superstar companies such as microblogging service Twitter or online bulletin-board company Pinterest. The firm's recent hiring of high-profile entrepreneur Kevin Rose as a partner could help attract higher-profile deals.

Soon it could have even more cash to play around with. "Larry has repeatedly asked me: 'What do you think you could do with a billion a year?'" said Maris, referring to Google chief executive Larry Page.

(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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Jared Loughner sentenced to life in Tucson mass shooting

CAPTIONS

Judy Clark, Jared Lee Loughner
Attorney Judy Clark, left, and defendant Jared Lee Loughner sit before the judge in federal court in Tucson. (Bill Robles / Associated Press /August 7, 2012)

By Michael Muskal

November 8, 2012, 11:47 a.m.

Jared Lee Loughner, who shot former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in the head, killed six and wounded 12 others in a 2011 Tucson rampage, was sentenced to life in prison without parole after listening to some of his victims berate him for damaging their lives.

Loughner, now 24, received the sentence in a Tucson federal court after a series of emotional confrontations. After one woman spoke about the pain of losing her husband to Loughner’s bullet, Giffords turned to her husband, retired astronaut Mark Kelly, and kissed him on the head, according to reports from journalists inside the courtroom.

When it was their turn to confront the shooter, Kelly and Giffords stood and looked directly at Loughner. It was the first time that Giffords has been face-to-face with Loughner. The defendant returned the couple’s gaze as Kelly explained how the bullet had changed his wife’s life, but couldn’t damage her spirit.

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Gabrielle Giffords' husband to shooter: You didn't dent her spirit

Gabrielle Giffords expected to attend Jared Loughner sentencing

Jared Loughner pleads guilty to killing 6 in Tucson shooting

TIMELINE: Deadliest mass shootings in the U.S.

"Gabby would trade her own life for one you took on that day,” Kelly said of his wife, whose efforts to recover have inspired many people across the nation.  “Every day is a continuous struggle to do the things she was once so very good at.”

“Mr. Loughner, you may have put a bullet through her head but you haven't put a dent in her spirit and her commitment to make the world a better place,” Kelly said, according to media reports.

"You tried to create for all of us a world as dark and evil as your own,” said the former astronaut as he looked at Loughner. “But know this, and remember it always: You failed.

“You have decades upon decades to contemplate what you did. But after today, after this moment, here and now, Gabby and I are done thinking about you.”

Giffords, who did not speak, kissed Kelly when he finished. Then he took her hand and they walked away, the former lawmaker limping.

Loughner, who wore a dark brown shirt with a tie, did not speak at his sentencing.

The scene sparked tears among many in the courtroom, according to journalists who tweeted from the scene. But it was just one of many emotional moments as the federal phase of the case came to a formal, and negotiated, end.

Giffords was making a routine political appearance at a supermarket parking lot in her Tucson district on the morning of Jan. 8, 2011, when Loughner opened fire.

Amid the chaos of the shots, passers-by wrestled Loughner to the ground. Before he was subdued, he had fired 31 more shots, six fatal.

The nation waited as doctors worked to save Giffords’ life in what has been described as a miraculous recovery. She then turned to her long-term and widely followed rehabilitation. Her first visit to Congress before stepping down from office led to a prolonged ovation from her colleagues.

The facts in the case were never in doubt. Loughner was the only suspect. The key issue  focused on whether he would avoid the death penalty because of his mental health. After the shooting, Loughner was diagnosed with schizophrenia and underwent forcible psychotropic drug treatments.

It was after those treatments that Loughner realized that he had only wounded Giffords, whom he saw as the personification of a government the shooter said he hated, prosecutor Wallace Kleindienst said in his comments to the court.

U.S. District Court Judge Larry A. Burns, who presided over the proceedings, had previously ruled that Loughner was capable of understanding the charges against him. This paved the way for a plea agreement designed to ensure that Loughner would spend the rest of his life in prison without possibility of parole. Three months ago, Loughner pleaded guilty to 19 federal charges. The agreement includes the dismissal of 30 other charges and a sentence of seven consecutive life terms, followed by 140 years in prison.

“The evidence clearly shows that he knew what he was doing, despite his mental illness,” Burns said in handing down the sentence. He called the length of the sentence justified.

Susan Hileman, one of the victims, shook as she addressed the court.

“We've been told about your demons, about the illness that skewed your thinking,” said Hileman, adding, “It's all true. ... It's not enough.”

“You pointed a weapon and shot me three times,” she said, staring directly at Loughner. He looked back at her. “And now I walk out of this courtroom and into the rest of my life and I won't think of you again.”

Loughner's mother Amy, sitting in the courtroom, wiped tears from eyes.

“There is no way to make sense of those senseless acts,” said another of the wounded, Rep. Ron Barber, a former top aide to Giffords who replaced his boss in Congress. “Our lives are forever changed.”

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Read More..

Man pleads no contest in 'Bling Ring' case

LOS ANGELES (AP) — A man who had been accused of burglarizing Paris Hilton's home pleaded no contest on Thursday to receiving jewelry stolen from the house during a rash of break-ins by a group dubbed the "Bling Ring."

Roy Lopez Jr. was then sentenced to serve three years of supervised probation.

Lopez, 30, was initially charged with felony residential burglary and conspiring with other members of the ring that targeted the swank, Hollywood Hills homes of stars such as Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Orlando Bloom and others.

Hilton's home was burglarized in December 2008, and police were able to return some of her property.

The burglary charge and other counts against Lopez were dropped. Deputy District Attorney Christine Kee said Hilton has opted not to receive restitution in the case.

Much of the estimated $3 million in high-end jewelry, clothes and art that was taken from the celebrities has never been recovered.

"We're pleased that the district attorney was able to work with us on this case and allow Roy to get his life back on track," defense attorney David Diamond said after the hearing.

Evidence in the case supported his contention that Lopez had never been in Hilton's residence, Diamond said.

Several other defendants, including the alleged ringleaders, have taken plea deals to end their cases. The remaining defendant, Courtney Leigh Ames, returns to court on Dec. 14.

Diana Tamayo, who pleaded no contest to burglarizing Lohan's home, might still be required to pay restitution in the case. Lohan has indicated she may seek restitution against Tamayo, but the actress was not available to be in court on Thursday, Kee said.

The case hit a snag recently after it was revealed that the lead police investigator was paid to consult and appear in an upcoming Sofia Coppola film based on the case.

Los Angeles Police Officer Brett Goodkin failed to disclose the work to his superiors and prosecutors ahead of time.

Superior Court Judge Larry Paul Fidler has called Goodkin's actions "stupid and a gift to defense attorneys," but not enough to warrant dismissal of any charges.

Fidler referenced the issue by telling Lopez, "You got a break because of what's happened in this case."

___

Anthony McCartney can be reached at http://twitter.com/mccartneyAP

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Well: The Presidential Health Quiz

Whether it’s George Washington’s teeth or Bill Clinton’s former hamburger habit, Americans have always been fascinated by the health of the president and presidential candidates.

With help from the Web site DoctorZebra, which has compiled an exhaustive list of the medical history of American presidents, we’ve created an Election Day quiz to test your knowledge of presidential fitness and health.

Read More..

JD Power study: Electric vehicle economics don't pencil out

Sales of electric vehicles won’t take off until automakers lower prices and demonstrate the economic benefits to consumers, according to a J.D. Power and Associates study of electric vehicle ownership.

Almost two years after automakers started selling battery-powered rechargeable cars in the U.S., the segment is an almost immeasurable portion of auto sales. 

Nissan has sold less than 6,800 Leaf electric cars this year through October, and that’s down 16% from the same period last year.  Honda has leased just 48 of the electric version of the Fit this year. Mitsubishi has sold less than 500 of its MiEV mini-car. Start-up electric car company Coda Automotive has refused to disclose how many cars it has sold.

Tesla Motors, which launched production of its high-end Model S electric hatchback, has delivered less than about 300, and expects to sell about 3,000 this year, depending on how quickly it can ramp up production at its factory in Fremont, Calif.

Meanwhile, led by Toyota’s family of hybrid vehicles, the industry will sell about 500,000 gas-electric vehicles this year, accounting for about 3.5% of U.S. auto sales.

People who have purchased an electric car “most often cite environmental friendliness as the most important benefit,” according to the study, which the J.D. Power research firm plans to conduct annually. 

Almost one-half -- 44% -- of EV owners ranked low emissions compared with gasoline vehicles as the top benefit of their vehicle.

But for people who are considering buying an EV, just 11% cite environmental concerns as their top reason while 45% list saving money on fuel.

The study found the savings could be significant.

“EV owners report an average monthly increase in their utility bill of just $18 to recharge their vehicle’s battery — which is significantly less than the $147 that they would typically pay for gasoline during the same period of time,” the study said.

The problem, said Neal Oddes, senior director of the green practice at J.D. Power, is that there “still is a disconnect between the reality of the cost of an EV and the cost savings that consumers want to achieve.”

A battery-powered all-electric vehicle will cost about $10,000 more than a similar gasoline-powered vehicle, he said. Based on annual fuel savings, it would take an average of 6.5 years to recoup that money.

“The payback period is longer than most consumers keep their vehicle,” Oddes said. “The bottom line is that the price has to come down, which requires a technological quantum leap to reduce the battery price.” 

 ALSO:

New Hyundai MPG suit

Upstart Tesla battles auto dealers

Suzuki files for bankruptcy protection

Follow me on Twitter (@LATimesJerry), Facebook and Google+.

Read More..

Apple shares slide to five-month low, competition grows

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Time to bury two election myths

With the election over and the votes counted, we now have data to refute a couple of persistent electoral myths — one involving economics, the other polling.

Myth One: “No president has been reelected with an unemployment rate higher than ….” This hoary notion never made much sense. Put the unemployment rate and the incumbent’s vote percentage on a graph, and you can immediately see that the two bear almost no relationship to each other.

Two main reasons explain this. One is that the unemployment rate sometimes goes up when times are getting better and down when things get worse. As an economy improves, more people start looking for work, sometimes leading to a temporary increase in the unemployment rate; conversely, when things get worse and discouraged workers drop out of the market, the rate can drop.

LIVE ANALYSIS: The Times breaks down Election Day

The other reason is that voters respond much more to the direction of change than they do to the status quo. In other words, whether voters perceive the economy as getting better or worse matters more than the economy’s absolute level. And the number of jobs created in the economy provides a much better measure than the unemployment rate.

Myth Two: “In an equally divided country, self-identified Democrats and Republicans should be roughly equal in polls.” This misconception launched a thousand debates over whether published polls were “skewed” in favor of Democrats. It also caused some Republican pollsters to fool themselves — and presumably their clients — by weighting poll results to match a preconceived idea of what the balance between the two parties “should” be.

In the end, the election returns proved them wrong. As exit polls showed, voters who identified themselves as Democrats outnumbered those who identified as Republicans 38% to 32% this year, about the same margin that the major pre-election polls showed.

Asking voters which party they identify with is one of the most important parts of any poll. Pollsters use party identification to analyze other data, looking at how self-identified Democrats and Republicans view issues differently. And, of course, party identification powerfully predicts voting behavior. Republicans who weighted their polls to narrow the partisan gap ended up producing results that made Romney and other GOP candidates appear to be in better shape than they were.

PHOTOS: America goes to the polls

Of course, those pollsters didn’t set out to fool themselves. They were trying to solve a riddle: If Democrats and Republicans are close to parity in the results — President Obama ended up beating Mitt Romney by about 2 percentage points in the popular vote — how can Democrats have a six-point edge in party identification?

The answer is actually pretty simple. Over the past decade, a significant number of people who vote for Republicans have stopped identifying themselves as Republicans. That includes a lot of ardent conservatives. Instead of calling themselves Republicans, those voters now identify as independents. No similar movement has taken place among Democrats.

As a result, the group of voters who identify as independent no longer sits at the center of the political spectrum. Instead, independents heavily tilt toward the Republicans. Polls that take those independents into account and then weight their results to show more Republicans are, in effect, double counting.

The other result of that shift: A Democrat no longer has to win independents to gain a majority. Indeed, Obama lost self-identified independents by five points, 45% to 50%, according to the exit polls. He beat Romney 56% to 41% among voters who identified themselves as ideologically “moderate.”

PHOTOS: Paul Ryan's past

Follow Politics Now on Twitter and Facebook

David.Lauter@latimes.com

Twitter: @DavidLauter

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Celebrities air post-election feelings online

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Mariah Carey was so excited about President Barack Obama's re-election that she released a new song in his honor. Beyoncé popped up on Instagram with a rebuke for Mitt Romney, while Romney supporter Elisabeth Hasselbeck sent out a disappointed but conciliatory tweet urging a divided United States to become one.

Celebrities, who voiced their opinions loudly during the election, continued to speak their minds after the ballots were counted.

Cameron Diaz, who is promoting her film "Gambit" in London, said she was worried about the election as she fell asleep.

"I was terrified that I was going to wake up to a total embarrassment for our country and that today would be a very different day for me," she said Wednesday. "But I was so thrilled."

Romney supporters Donald Trump and Ted Nugent ranted on Twitter after the election that the country is doomed, while Spike Lee and Russell Simmons celebrated Obama's victory and the diverse electorate behind it.

NBC News anchor Brian Williams called attention to Trump's series of tweets Tuesday while covering election returns, saying the real-estate magnate and reality-TV star had "driven well past the last exit to relevance and veered into something closer to irresponsible" with his posts.

"This election is a total sham and a travesty. We are not a democracy!" Trump tweeted. "Let's fight like hell and stop this great and disgusting injustice! The world is laughing at us."

Nugent was similarly upset — and expressive — Wednesday morning.

"Pimps whores & welfare brats & their soulless supporters hav a president to destroy America," he wrote. "Goodluk America u just voted for economic & spiritual suicide. Soulless fools."

He concluded with: "I cry tears of blood for The Last Best Place & the warriors who died for this tragedy."

Hasselbeck shared a more measured response, tweeting, "(Hash) momentofpeace: You cannot love the game only when your player wins. We remain to be the greatest nation and (at)BarackObama is OUR President." Mark Cuban, meanwhile, extended a virtual olive branch to Trump, writing, "I know it was a rough night for u," and inviting Trump to join him in raising funds for victims of Hurricane Sandy.

Spike Lee was among the most vocal Obama supporters online after the election, using his Twitter feed to blast the Republican party.

"Great Lesson. This Is Not Ike's 1950's USA. Complexion Of This Great Country Has Changed-A True Melting Pot. The GOP Is Stuck In A Time Warp. YO," the filmmaker wrote Wednesday. "GOP WAKE UP. This Is Not" LEAVE TO BEAVER.FATHER KNOWS BEST OR MAYBERRY R.F.D." THE 21st CENTURY. And Dat's Da 2nd Term Truth, Ruth. YA-DIG??"

Beyoncé also gloated a bit, posting a photo on her blog that read, "Take that Mitches." It was accompanied by another photo of the singer wearing a "Texans for Obama" T-shirt.

Carey released a new song, "Bring It On Home," online Wednesday to celebrate the president's victory. She first performed the song at an Obama fundraiser over the summer, said Carey publicist Cindi Berger.

The pop star also shared her support on Twitter.

"Congratulations to our beloved President Barack Obama, our spectacular First Lady Michelle Obama & the adorable Malia & Sasha. We love you!" Carey wrote. "INCREDIBLE SPEECH!!!!!! Watching in a room full of diverse people-all truly moved. Thank you America for President Obama-4more yrs."

Simmons also acknowledged the diversity of Obama supporters in a blog post Wednesday called "Forward!"

"This is no time for triumphalism, because we are still in an economic crisis and we still have deep social divisions that must be dealt with," he wrote. "But we have to absorb, as a country, as a NATION, that first and foremost, AMERICA IS CHANGING... We cannot fight demographics by ignoring women, Latinos, blacks, young people, and gays who gave their lives for our country.

"The middle class and poor need support," he continues, "and every politician who is not ready for this change should wake today and realize that minorities will wait in line into the early hours of the morning to vote them out of office. Forward, we go."

Scores of other stars — including Tony Bennett, Cher, Shakira, Lady Gaga, Jessica Alba and Samuel L. Jackson— celebrated Obama's victory on Twitter.

Others, including filmmaker Ron Howard and actors Rob Lowe and James Van Der Beek, say it's time to move past the election toward mending the nation.

"To all the winners (and losers) tonight: Politicians run campaigns. Leaders strike compromises," Van Der Beek wrote. "Time for everyone to shift gears now (hash)please."

___

— AP Entertainment Writer Hilary Fox contributed to this report from London.

___

— Follow AP Entertainment Writer Sandy Cohen on Twitter at www.twitter.com/APSandy .

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Global Update: Polio Eradication Efforts in Pakistan Focus on Pashtuns

Michael Kamber for The New York Times

Polio will never be eradicated in Pakistan until a way is found to persuade poor Pashtuns to embrace the vaccine, according to a study released by the World Health Organization.

A survey of 1,017 parents of young children found that 41 percent had never heard of polio and 11 percent refused to vaccinate their children against it. The survey was done in Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city and the only big city in the world where polio persists; it was published in the agency’s November bulletin.

Parents from poor families “cited lack of permission from family elders,” said Dr. Anita Zaidi, who teaches pediatrics at the Aga Khan University in Karachi. Some rich parents also disdained the vaccine, saying it was “harmful or unnecessary,” she added.

Pashtuns account for 75 percent of Pakistan’s polio cases even though they are only 15 percent of the population. Wealthy children are safer because the virus travels in sewage, and their neighborhoods may have covered sewers and be less flood-prone.

Pashtuns are the largest ethnic group in next-door Afghanistan, where polio has also never been wiped out. Most Taliban fighters are Pashtun, and some Taliban threatened to kill vaccinators earlier this year. Two W.H.O. vaccinators were shot in Karachi in July.

Rumors persist that the vaccine is a plot to sterilize Muslims. But the eradication drive is recruiting Pashtuns as vaccinators and asking prominent religious leaders from various sects to make videos endorsing the vaccine.

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